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Post by CMF on Nov 15, 2022 20:03:36 GMT
Just throwing this out there to start a discussion. For the sake of this thread, I will assume that anyone who posts on it is interested in re-signing Jake.
Given that and knowing his history, what would you be comfortable offering him?
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Post by thomasam on Nov 15, 2022 20:48:25 GMT
It feels like the sweet spot is three years/$120MM. I'm not sure if anyone will go beyond three years with the way he throws at his age. If he's set on Texas or Atlanta he's set on going and trying to convince him with more money just blows past his value.
I'm getting the feeling that many fans are fine with him going and I can understand that to a point. His injuries have been frustrating. The upside is worth the game though even on this side of 30.
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Post by CMF on Nov 16, 2022 13:19:55 GMT
I agree, the injuries have been frustrating. When healthy I have no problems with his performance.
The sentimental part of me wants him back but what cost is reasonable given the potential risk/reward?? At this point he's just not a reliable full season pitcher, I think.
Jim Bowden reported that the Braves were offering a 2 year/$90M contract but I also read this: According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Atlanta Braves are highly unlikely to sign deGrom or any other shortstop besides Dansby Swanson.
"The Braves are reluctant to enter into a deal with any player who takes up too high a percentage of their payroll, knowing in future seasons the salaries of their young players will rise," Rosenthal wrote.
So who knows which one is true?
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Post by nyf on Nov 21, 2022 23:36:59 GMT
Braves signing history makes me believe they will NOT be ones to sign any single player to a top tier contract. Braves 2022 payroll was 200 million. Are we saying they are going to give near 25% of that to DeGrom and go up to 245mm? I just don't see it.
I would be down for the Mets doing a 3 year 120, but that doesn't get him above the Scherzer numbers. I've even come to terms with a 3 year 130 to inch ahead of Max. I would prefer a 2 year 90 + 3rd year team option for 35/6 million buyout for a total of 96 guaranteed (43 a year). I believe all of this is an overpay due to the injury risk factor, but for the Mets psyche of getting over the little brother syndrome, its a necessary one for a homegrown star. Losing DeGrom would be like the Yankees losing Judge, you just CANNOT let it happen short of someone blowing away the market.
For DeGrom, blowing away the market would be a 4th year at a similar amount akin to a 170 million dollar contract. Zero justification for a 4th guaranteed year of overpayment to a 34 year old whose arm could fall off at any moment.
Now if DeGrom wants to hold out and play games hoping he gets that from somewhere (think Trevor Bauer who waited until mid-Feb to sign his deal), turning down 3 year deals similar to the above, do the Mets justifiably pivot?
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Post by thomasam on Nov 29, 2022 20:31:29 GMT
At some point you kind of have to get a guaranteed arm like Rodon in here if deGrom is holding out well into 2023. Then if his market softens maybe they end up with both. It's unlikely but not impossible if they think Alvarez, Baty and Vientos can play from the start and save money next year.
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Post by nyf on Nov 30, 2022 15:19:58 GMT
I'm also eager, with the Mets having so many holes to fill, it feels like this has been months into the offseason... but let's remember, it's not even December yet. November big signings are typically rare.
But yes, if DeGrom is holding out, then Rodon pivot makes sense, but I do not see a world they end up with both and stay below 350 million. What does that look like? Currently, Mets at 220.
Rondon 30. DeGrom 35 (assuming that is what a softened market looks like for him?), that puts you at 285. BP needs massive help, they need what, 5 guys? So we're looking at 20 million at least? New total 305 million.
Are we then staying pat everywhere else?
CF: Rocking Marte out there with McNeil in right? Certainly not getting Nimmo or Judge if you're signing Rodon and DeGrom (or any 2 of 3 mix that could include Verlander) DH: Mix of Vientos, Alverez, Vogelbach - are you happy with that? Are we assuming they trade Ruf and eat most of his salary? Otherwise add what, 10-15 million? Already missed out on Abreau. C: If you're bringing up Alverez, have you traded McCann? Are you carrying 3 catchers? They've already offered Nido arbitration, so figure 1.5-2 million there. IF: Pete, Escobar, Lindor, Baty (likely no changes here) Bench: McCann, Alverez, Guillorme, Vientos, Ruf?. (Assuming Voglebach is most days DH, if not, sub him for someone else listed here). We happy with Khalil Lee as our backup OFer? Assuming they cut/trade Ruf or McCann as we're already at a 6 man bench and still leaves us short 1 OFer.
I guess to wrap it up, unless you're happy with a diminished BP, OF, DH and bench, there is no way short of a 350 million payroll that we're getting Rodon and DeGrom, even if the DeGrom market softens. My guess is Cohen keeps Nimmo in CF, signs either DeGrom or Rodon, and uses the rest to shore up the BP.
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Post by saxon on Nov 30, 2022 17:30:48 GMT
I'm not so sure that throwing a lot of money at deGrom is a better idea than throwing a lot of short term money at Verlander...
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Post by saxon on Dec 3, 2022 1:17:17 GMT
deGrom is gone. Like ARod, he would rather make a shitton of money losing with the Rangers. 5 years, $185 mil with an option that could make it $220 mil.
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Post by brianstark on Dec 3, 2022 1:21:44 GMT
You beat me by about four minutes.
Is the option for a sixth year?
If so, good luck to Texas, he can't stay on the mound enough to justify that much money.
I'm glad he is there and not Atlanta, The Bronx, or Philthy.
Now, sign Verlander and Rondon...
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Post by CMF on Dec 3, 2022 2:02:48 GMT
I am shocked, stunned. Thought he would end up back on the Mets, but not for that kind of scratch. Texas is spending serious money but I'm not sure if it helps them. I wouldn't have offered five years, and I love deGrom.
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Post by abat on Dec 3, 2022 9:26:44 GMT
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Post by saxon on Dec 4, 2022 1:47:34 GMT
You beat me by about four minutes. Is the option for a sixth year? If so, good luck to Texas, he can't stay on the mound enough to justify that much money. I'm glad he is there and not Atlanta, The Bronx, or Philthy. Now, sign Verlander and Rondon... sorry about that... option is the 6th year...I like deGrom but considering how much missed time that he's had; that would have been a huge commitment...We gave David Wright a crazy contract like that, and he missed most of it
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Post by nyf on Dec 6, 2022 19:26:05 GMT
Very late to the game. I'm very ok with the DeGrom for Verlander swap considering the contracts. Personally, I would have gone Rodon for 5 or 6 over Verlander, but I agree with Brian - why not gete both?
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Post by nyf on Feb 15, 2023 19:21:51 GMT
Ruh Roh Rorge...
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Post by thomasam on Feb 16, 2023 16:39:09 GMT
I think every Mets fan breathed a collective sigh of relief not having to see those reports yesterday. When he's pitching he'll still be awesome but there is this "will he or won't he" part that is just exhausting and will be for the next five years.
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