2024 The next chapter: Free Agency Market

My early off-season thoughts.

Biggest needs:

SP SP SP.

Senga, Peterson are locks. Butto/Megill can fight it out for our #5, loser goes to the pen.  Sproat/Tidwell/Vasil are probably depth. Scott will miss the season. This leaves at least 2 spots to fill.

1) I would try to resign Manaea. My guess is given his age, something in the realm of 3 years, 20-22M per year should get it done. I think he wants to be here, and despite last night's disappointment, I think Mets fans want him here as well. 3 years, 65M. Sign me up.
2) Shop in the Burnes/Fried/Snell market. Get me one of those guys, and I'm happy with our rotation. This like takes about 25-30M a year. Lets round up, 30M.

RP RP RP.

No specific plan here, but outside of Diaz and loser of Megill/Butto, our pen is WIDE WIDE open. Fill it up. I like Stanek, but I have no loyalties here. Get me the best arms out there. Something we can count on to shut down 6th - 8th regularly. Put about 50M into it combined, make it electric.

So this means with 170M stockpile coming off the books, I've spent about 100M of it. The rest can go towards bats.

Power Bat. Soto is #1. Throw all the money in the world at him. Superstar in his prime to pair with Lindor over the next MANY years. If not him, you have options. Pete and Bregman are probably the next best fits (Vientos can move to 1B if need be). Bellinger in the OF is an option as well.  Personally, I'd rather have Bregman than Pete, but Pete is homegrown, so there is the feel good there.

Signing any two of those would probably be about 50M (no Soto) to 75M (with Soto).  If you have Soto, I probably try to trade McNeil if you can get someone to take on his salary.  Its a reasonable deal, and he had enough of a resurgence post all star that I think someone takes it.  Fill the rest of the line up with cheap deals and our kids.  

C: Alvy
1B: Vientos (Pete)
2B: Mauricio
SS: Lindor
3B: Bregman (Vientos)
OF:  Soto/Gilbert/Nimmo (Bellinger?)
DH: (probably rotation)

Bench: Taylor, Marte, Acuna, Catcher

SP:  Burnes/Fried/Snell, Senga, Manaea, Peterson, Megill/Butto
RP:  Diaz, Megill/Butto, + 6 TBD

Depth (on top of MLB bench): 
IF:  Jett Williams, Baty, scrappy MiLB deals
OF:  Jett Williams, Clifford, scrappy MiLB deals

besides Bregman, the Fox crew also floated Willy Adames as a possibility for 3rd (or 2nd)...Stearns acquired Adames from the Rays while he was the Brewers GM...both Bregman and Adames had higher WAR than Alonso, are are roughly the same age


and while it doesn't make sense to sign a 1B if Alonso walks, there are a few really good 1B's available (which might water down Alonso's market)

I didn't go as far down the rabbit hole with catchers because unless the catcher has a good ceiling, they aren't likely to replace the Alvarez/Torrens combo

Qualified Offers:

Just quickly refreshed myself on the rules.

IF LOSING A QO PLAYER - Competitive Balance Tax payors: If the team that loses the player went over the CBT threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round has been completed. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case.

IF SIGNING A QO PLAYER - Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest picks as well.

www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

Player I expect the Mets to give a QO to.

Alonso - no brainer
Manaea - easy choice
Sevy - more borderline, but I'd be happy with him back on a 1 year 21M contract as it hold little to no risk.

QO Players I'd like the mets to target.

Juan Soto (duh)
Pete Alonso (if we don't get Soto, or if we don't get Bregman)
Max Fried
Corbin Burnes (fallback if we don't get Fried)
Sean Manaea (would love to keep him + one of the 2 above)
Alex Bregman (even if we do get Soto)

Wild Card:  Bellinger can't be given a QO and can play CF... just saying.

www.mlb.com/news/2024-25-qualifying-offer-candidates-and-decisions

this was interesting to find out:

Corbin Burnes and David Stearns
Overview
Corbin Burnes is a professional baseball pitcher who has played for the Milwaukee Brewers (2018-2022) and currently plays for the Baltimore Orioles (2023-present).

Relationship
Corbin Burnes and David Stearns have a significant connection, as Stearns drafted Burnes in the 4th round of the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft while serving as the Brewers’ General Manager. Burnes developed into an All-Star pitcher under Stearns’ guidance, winning the 2021 NL Cy Young Award.

Trade
In February 2023, the Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for infielder Joey Ortiz, pitcher D.L. Hall, and the 34th overall pick in the 2024 amateur draft. The move marked a significant departure for the Brewers, who had previously been reluctant to trade their ace.

Rumors and Speculation
Prior to the trade, rumors swirled about Burnes’ potential departure from Milwaukee, with some speculating that he might be unhappy with the arbitration process and seeking a change of scenery. With David Stearns now at the helm of the New York Mets, there were whispers about the possibility of a reunion between Burnes and Stearns.

Key Statistics
Corbin Burnes’ career stats: 60-36 win-loss record, 3.19 ERA, 1,051 strikeouts

Notable Quotes
“Corbin Burnes has emerged as one of the top starting pitchers in the majors during the Pandemic Era.” - CBS Sports
“Steve Cohen, the richest owner in baseball, can make [Corbin Burnes] happy financially.” - ESPN

bullet points from David Stearns End of Season press conference:

www.justmets.net/p/david-stearns-on-pete-alonsos-future


Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns spoke with reporters at Citi Field in his end-of-season press conference on Wednesday and said the following:



The Mets are eager to build off of 2024, and establish a model of sustained success going forward



He views Pete Alonso as a great Met, and hopes to retain him long term. He expects Alonso to go out to the market and see what’s out there



He called Alonso a, “foundational piece” for the organization



Who Alonso is as a person is important, what he means to the franchise is important, but how his game is expected to age is also a factor in the decision making



Alonso and Stearns have never spoken about the contract situation face to face - Stearns believes those conversations are best left with the agent



Regarding the possibility of Mark Vientos shifting to first base, they are not ready to comment on that possibility. They are happy with how Vientos played third base this past season



He is not eager to hire a general manager - he is pleased with the performance of his leadership team and front office. He doesn’t expect to entertain a search process for a GM



They will go through an organizational evaluation process right now, but is pleased with the performance of the major league coaching staff



It’s possible some of the starting pitchers from 2024 will return, but he expects to be in the market for starting pitching this winter, labeling it as a, “priority” this winter



He would not commit to José Buttó, David Peterson or Tylor Megill being members of their starting rotation



Ronny Mauricio needs to begin baseball activities - his recovery process has been slower than expected. They don’t know how he fits into the 2025 roster at this time



“The entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible to us,” Stearns said regarding the Mets financial flexibility this winter. He expects the Mets to spend a good portion of that flexibility but not do anything that hamstrings the team in future years



He expects them to be “active” in free agency but can’t commit to a payroll number right now, and will also explore the trade market as well



They would love to bring Sean Manaea back next year, and they expect to, “stay in touch” with Jesse Winker as well



Regarding investing long-term in a starting pitcher, he is aware of the low degree of success with those contracts. But there could be exceptions where they will invest long-term in a starting pitcher



They’re open to exploring long-term deals with their pre-arbitration eligible players, but warned it requires mutual interest



They don’t know where and how Brett Baty fits into the roster next season



He is pleased with the progress of the farm system, although the amount of development didn’t go as anticipated due to injuries among their position player prospects. Blade Tidwell moving to Triple-A was a big advancement in the minor leagues, as was Nolan McLean’s forward progress



Francisco Lindor said he feels mostly normal after his late-season back injury, and Brandon Nimmo was also moving well by the end of the NLCS



Dedniel Núñez is progressing well from his elbow injury. They hope to have him throw off a mound in November. If that goes well, he will have a normal off-season



He feels Mets manager Carlos Mendoza did a “tremendous job” in 2024



Kodai Senga will experience a normal off-season - he is completely healthy at this time