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Post by nyf on Sept 17, 2024 14:26:13 GMT
So the remaining schedule, going to soundboard my way to a conclusion of "what the Mets need to do" that I haven't quite arrived at, so bear with me and enjoy the ride.
The most important series on the Mets schedule, as we all know, is the Braves. Win that series, and your advantage with 12 left to play is 2 games + the tie breaker which acts as a 3rd game. If the Mets do that, IMO, its essentially game over (+3 with 9 other games to play). If the Mets lose that one, its essentially tied in the standings, but Braves hold the tiebreaker, so its Mets back by 1.
So lets pray that next week, Mets win it, but prepare mentally for if they don't. What does that leave? 9 games with 2 against the Nats, 4 Phillies and 3 Brewers. Do we think that realistically, if the Mets go 2-0 vs Nats, 2-2 Phillies, and 2-1 vs Brewers (potentially resting guys if bye out of reach), then overall being 6-3, does that get it done? It'll be pretty darn close. If the Mets don't sweep the Nats, then you're looking at 5-4, which is a tougher road to travel.
So, as I have now thought this through, start to finish, my musings conclude with best case scenario, Mets sweep the Nats, win the Braves series, and its all but over. If not, then we need either a Nats sweep OR a Braves series win to have a chance, and missing both is likely nite nite time.
(Obviously, winning 3 of 4 vs Phillies, or sweeping Brewers, could greatly change the calculus, but those two series are the most logical path without asking for a miracle)
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Post by nyf on Sept 18, 2024 14:13:16 GMT
for the record - I didn't expect the Braves to lose immediately to the Reds... if that happens again, the importance of the head to head may decrease. Either way, we just need to keep winning. SWEEP SWEEP SWEEP!
11 to go: Padres +2.5 Mets D'Backs: Even (lose tiebreaker)
Braves: -2
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Post by saxon on Sept 18, 2024 14:14:30 GMT
that was really a fun game last night...good to see some explosion from the lately lathagic offense
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Post by saxon on Sept 19, 2024 15:02:11 GMT
the easy part of the schedule is done...every game left is against a team either in the playoffs or in the wild card hunt...sucks for us, but at the same time, it's who we would have to beat in the playoffs so...if we wanted to make it past the wild card round, do we want to battle the big boys or the creampuffs in preparation?
I think that one of the things that hurt the Mets in the 1986 playoffs (we almost got beat by the Astros and then the Sox) is that we ran away the NL East so early, that it wasn't a challenge the rest of the way...The Astros/Sox had to fight a little more later in the season than we did...
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Post by nyf on Sept 19, 2024 16:20:23 GMT
Mets clearly have the hardest schedule, but its not as significant as you might think:
Mets: Phillies (4), Braves (3), Brewers (3) Braves: Reds (1), Marlines (3), Mets (3), Royals (3) D'Back: Brewers (4), Giants (3), Padres (3) Padres: White Sox (3), Dodgers (3), DBack (3)
So really, Mets have 3 tough series, everyone else has 2 tough series. Reds, Marlins and Giants aren't cake walks, so even if the schedule nets a projected advantage of 1 game for the Braves and DBack, this still means at the end of the day, the Mets need to take care of business to stay on pace and in a playoff position.
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Post by nyf on Sept 19, 2024 16:23:00 GMT
I think that one of the things that hurt the Mets in the 1986 playoffs (we almost got beat by the Astros and then the Sox) is that we ran away the NL East so early, that it wasn't a challenge the rest of the way...The Astros/Sox had to fight a little more later in the season than we did... I think we've seen this trend A LOT in the past 20 years. Its why the WCs, based solely on the eye ball test, has had disproportionate success in advancing in the playoffs. They fight their way in. Are hungry when they get there. And play with the emotion a team leading in the division for the past month has a hard time turning back on. 2022 Mets certainly fell victim to that as they lost the division and ultimately the WC series. We've also seen it from most of the teams that received byes in 2022 and 2023.
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Post by saxon on Sept 22, 2024 19:08:15 GMT
Tonight could possibly be the Polar Bear's last home game at Citi Field...hopefully it's a good game and we can at least stay 2 games ahead of the Braves...and hopefully pull even with the D'Backs again
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Post by nyf on Sept 23, 2024 15:38:07 GMT
3Ks and barely beat out a DP ball. Feels about right for this season.
I don't expect him back next year. I'm not saying I don't want him back, I just don't expect it. My guess is Cubs overpay on a 7 year, 200M contract.
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Post by nyf on Sept 23, 2024 15:44:37 GMT
WC Update:
SD +3 Mets DBacks (lost tiebreaker) Braves -2
Biggest regular season series of the year starts tomorrow. LFGM!!
*Shame we blew those 2 games in Philly. If we had held those (and then avoided any butterfly effect on future wins) we would only be 3 games back of the division 😖 (and 3 up on the Braves in the WC...)
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Post by saxon on Sept 23, 2024 18:52:58 GMT
3Ks and barely beat out a DP ball. Feels about right for this season. I don't expect him back next year. I'm not saying I don't want him back, I just don't expect it. My guess is Cubs overpay on a 7 year, 200M contract. I'm thinking that if we somehow get Soto, that he'll be a Yankee...Cubs wouldn't surprise me though...what teams with money to burn don't already have a decent 1B?
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Post by saxon on Sept 23, 2024 18:55:48 GMT
didn't realize that it was my 666 post originally, so I added the "Shout at the devil" video to protect my post from evil...by the way, I did see them on that tour as a warmup band for Iron Maiden or Ozzy (don't remember which, it was a very blurry time in my memories...good blurry, not bad blurry)
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Post by saxon on Sept 23, 2024 19:05:54 GMT
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Post by saxon on Sept 23, 2024 20:25:41 GMT
sorry about going off-topic with the music/concerts stuff
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Post by saxon on Sept 23, 2024 21:57:55 GMT
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Post by nyf on Sept 25, 2024 15:14:32 GMT
lol - and how many posts to you have when you're logged in as the "admin" instead of "Saxon" or is it just different skins for the same account?
Bummer of a loss yesterday. Not surprised they had a let down game following the BIG Phillies series. Getting rained out for the next 2 might be a blessing in disguise.
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