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Post by saxon on Jun 26, 2024 14:46:23 GMT
just leaving this out here...
Juan Soto:
career numbers at Citi Field: .339 .465 .722 1.187
Pete Alonso:
career numbers at Citi Field: .236 .333 .487 .819
and if you can only have 1, if you can sign Soto but can't afford both:
Vientos has 11 of his 19 career HRs at Citi Field...so he's got the power to handle the Citi Field fences...
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Post by nyf on Jun 26, 2024 17:20:03 GMT
Pete is going to be an interesting one. Personally, I've seen enough of Vientos at 3B to say his defense there is serviceable enough that I'm not burying him at 1B if I don't have to, and assuming he doesn't wildly regress as MLB pitching adjusts to him, he's my 3B of the future.
So what do you do with 1B? I'd love for it to continue to be Pete, but the market resetting contract talk needs to stop. He's a 40 HR guy who will likely hit you .250 +/- 20 points. There's value in that, for sure, but not market resetting value. My guess is he gets Springer type money + inflation, but if he's looking for Lindor type money, he's out of his mind. 7 years, 25 million = 175M?
I think the Mets 7 year 158M offer was very fair. Bump that up a little bit, and you're at what I stated above, which feels like the ceiling.
Scary thing, I think the Yankees will sign Pete if they don't sign Soto. 1B is a black hole for them. Yankee stadium will be VERY friendly to Pete's all field power, and Judge/Alonso would be a dynamic long ball pair. The only question is whether the Yankees, with their more recent controlled contract style, will be willing to go higher than what the Mets already offered.
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Post by nyf on Jul 18, 2024 14:29:47 GMT
As the question is popping up again in the Vientos thread, sparking it back up here. What do you pay Pete? Back side of the all-star break, his value has gone down if anything, not up. Might he end up following the path of another former Met/Boras client who turned down REALLY good money, and ended up making mediocre money (on the baseball spectrum)?
Conforto - offered 100-120M for unknown number of years. Lets assume it was in range of 4-6 years which would translate to 20-25M per year. Ended up getting injured, missing a year, so the 3 years since (2 played) has made 36M, and the next contract aint looking great.
Pete, no injury (yet), so he should do better than Conforto, but is he watching his 158M slowly slip away?
2019 - 2022 - MONSTER stats. 4 year average of .261 with OPS of .884,simply a monster.
2023: OPS dropped to .821. A lot of that is the .217 average. Still good, not elite, far too boom or bust. Still hit 46 HRs. Spike in Ks is concerning.
2024: OPS drops even further to .772 even though average rebounded somewhat to .240. Is he sacrificing HRs for average? He's already hit as many doubles as he did last year, but his HRs pace is 32, which is his lowest full season total of his career. Had a chance to raise stock at HR derby, but if anything, it dipped even further there.
Question teams have to ask, as Pete gets older, is his body regressing? What will it be like as he approaches 35, 36? Are you still looking to pay him 25M a year at that time?
Are teams going to line up for a .240, 35-45 HR guy? Of course. Are they going to be 200M for that? Doubt it. End of the day, it only takes 1 team, but my guess is Pete doesn't touch 7 years 158 again. He may get more per, but he's not getting 7 years from anyone. He bet on himself and so far, it failed.
Still love him, would still want him as a Met, but more in line with the Conforto 5 years 100-120M type numbers, and if that offer comes, Pete should ask Michael what it feels like to turn down that kind of money.
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Post by saxon on Jul 18, 2024 14:41:12 GMT
IMO, like you pointed out with Conforto...I think that Pete shot himself in the foot by hiring Boras and rejecting the Mets prior offers....
as much as I like Alonso...compared to some of the other "elite" 1B's and "elite" power hitters around the majors, he's more of a 1-trick pony...and when he's not crushing 45 HRs, while showing weaknesses at home and vs LHP...that makes him more of a Rob Deer than a Freddie Freeman or even a Paul Goldschmidt (who is also having an off-year)
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Post by brianstark on Jul 20, 2024 21:26:30 GMT
I will state this categorically.
I would love for Pete to be a Met for his career.
BUT.
If the call is between Soto and Pete, bye by Pete.
Frankly, my personal opinion is:
Somehow keep JD (who I have wanted for three or four years anyway), Bader, Iglesias, and Severino.
JD is a professional hitter who can be a fantastic leader for the younger players coming up. Bader and Iglesias are excellent defenders who can either be a solid, league average starter or EXCELLENT bench players, and Severino is a pro starter. While we do have some decent pitching coming up through the farm, you can never have too many starters and Luis has the NYC track record.
Add Soto as the #3 hitter with Lindor/Nimmo 1/2 and JD as cleanup and you have a great top of the lineup.
Trade McNeil, move Acuna to 2B. If Pete walks, slide Vientos to 1B.
An OF of Nimmo/Bader/Soto? I just popped a boner.
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Post by nyf on Jul 22, 2024 22:08:11 GMT
I'll assume in this scenario you trade Marte, eat half his salary, and call that a day. I'd take that OF in a heartbeat. Even if it means no Pete.
For the rest, my guess is our boy Sterns goes back to the dumpster pile to find some more discarded gems.
Severino - how much are you willing to give him? With his injury concerns, his innings count (already his highest since 2018), his increasing age (going to be 31 next year), and his decreased K rate, I'm not sure I'm willing to invest 3 years in him, and I'm guessing someone else does. 3 years/45 million. Seems rich for Sevy. Like him, but I think I pass.
Bader: Essentially see Severino, but for hitters. 300-400 ABs every year before this one. Having a great year, but that likely means someone gives him a 3 year deal. Don't want that to be the Mets. Happy to keep him on another 1 year deal, but really don't think that'll be possible.
JD: Might be willing to resign another 1 year deal. I'm down for that. Longer, then no thanks. Also, reserving judgement until this cold streak snaps.
Iglesias: Should be the most reasonable to sign/keep. Somewhere in the 1 year, 3-5 million range. Happy to keep him as my back up IF
McNeil: Owed 15M for the next 3 years. No one is taking that on, unless he has more series like this one. I'm keeping him as a back up who can play multiple positions rather than give him away for nothing and still pay his salary.
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Post by brianstark on Jul 22, 2024 23:27:39 GMT
Allow me to retort!
I would couch my previous post with the caveat of "at a reasonable price". I agree, if someone offers Luis or Harison 3 years I would say, "good luck and thanks for a decent year".
JD? He may be at the time in his career where it's year-to-year. I MIGHT go 1 + option, but like I said, I think his future value is a wise, grizzled, hitting sensei for the younger players matriculating their way up and that would be a good thing.
I read my Nimmo/Bader/Soto dream again, and damn, that's Viagra right there...
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Post by brianstark on Jul 22, 2024 23:42:39 GMT
What does the group think Bor@$$ will accept for Pete?
The fair market offer we made was turned down, so that is the obvious negative point.
7/158
Olsen got 8/168
Personally, I don't think he should get more than Olson, they are similar offensive players but Olsen is a gold glove defender. That makes up for the slightly better offensive stats Pete has (see the 162 game averages listed for both in Baseball Reference).
7/163 splits the total difference, is more than fair, and a better AAV than Olson got.
My guess is that Bor@$$ won't take that.
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Post by nyf on Jul 23, 2024 16:23:01 GMT
Brian - retort accepted! lol.
Quick note on Olson, remember, i think 2 of those 8 years bought out arbitration years. So those are theoretically "cheaper" than FA years, so Pete's average should reflect higher data points for those . Flip side, Olson's contract ends when he's 35 (with a team friendly 20M option for age 36 year). Pete will be 30, so 7 years guaranteed him through age 36 season, one longer than Olson, which will theoretically be "overvalued" at that age. So those may be a wash.
To answer the your question though is NOT "what Boras will take?" Unless they suddenly plan to negotiate before FA starts, which I do not believe they do (as shown when they turned down the 7/158), the question has shifted to "what will teams offer?" Alonso stats regressing the wrong way for the 2nd straight season. WAR by year for Pete/Olson:
2019: 5.5 / 4.9
2020: 0.2 / 1.1 (shortened)
2021: 4.1 / 5.8
2022: 4.4 / 3.3
2023: 3.2 / 7.4
2024: 1.0 / 0.9 (to date)
Olson got his deal coming off a 5.8 WAR season. Pete is on pace for a sub 2.0 WAR season.
Pete will get paid, but I don't think Boras is getting an opportunity to dictate those terms, and I think he'll find he left money on the table. I'd be shocked, short of Pete getting hot and his bat fueling huge playoff push, that he comes close to 7/163. My guess is he's somewhere in the 5/120 range now (higher AAV, fewer years), with maybe a 2 year opt out option if he can prove he's more valuable.
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Post by nyf on Jul 25, 2024 17:55:15 GMT
BTW - credit where credit due, Pete starting to emerge. Hit his first HR in a LONG while last night, but more importantly, he is striking out less, and getting on base more:
Since AS break: 7 for 23 .304/407/522/929
Last 4 games: 5 for 12 - .417/.500/.750/1.250
Hopefully this is the start of a prolonged productive period.
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Post by brianstark on Jul 27, 2024 11:56:54 GMT
5/120 is a number I would snap up immediately if they would take it.
I can definitely see Bor@$$ holding this negotiation all the way to February.
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Post by saxon on Sept 5, 2024 3:59:20 GMT
5/120 is a number I would snap up immediately if they would take it. I can definitely see Bor@$$ holding this negotiation all the way to February. bumping this thread, now that Pete has been hitting better and also, we are entering Pete's regular season's final month... I think that Brian's 5 year, $120 is a good barometer of Pete's next contract... Did he screw up by not agreeing to an earlier offer by the Mets? Is he more valued around the league than we think? (remember Robinson Cano's crazy deal with the Mariners that we eventually got stuck with to get Diaz)? |
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Post by saxon on Sept 5, 2024 4:08:30 GMT
And while not saying that Vientos could fill Alonso's shoes...but...Vientos put up some quality power numbers in the minors, and once he got a chance to play regularly at the end of the season, he showed that he had plenty of power for Citi Field (6 of his 9 HRs were at home)... also, now that Vientos has established himself at the MLB level while showing that he's got plenty of straight-away dead Center Field and Right Center power for Citi Field...has he made Mets desire to overpay Alonso diminish a bit? This season, Vientos has hit 14 of his 22 Home Runs at Citi Field for a .596 Home Slugging Percentage (note: he has 14 Citi Field HRs compared to 8 road HRs in fewer Plate Appearances); Career wise, Alonso has a .490 Slugging Percentage at Citi Field; vs a .545 slugging Percentage on the road; although this season is about equal with a slightly better number at home |
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Post by saxon on Sept 5, 2024 13:58:23 GMT
Pete is currently ranked #9 on Baseball Reference's Free Agent Power Rankings...#6 Matt Chapman, who plays a decent 3rd base and I believe is a Boras client as well, just signed for 6 years, $151 Mil... www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/08/2024-25-free-agent-power-rankings-late-august.html6. Matt Chapman, 3B, Giants * Chapman pairs that solid offense with some of the best third base defense in the majors. He’s a four-time Gold Glove winner who still rates as one of the game’s top glovemen. Chapman will play next season at 32, so his athleticism and defensive metrics might drop off within the next few seasons, but he’s one of the better all-around infielders in the majors right now. 9. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets The personification of the prototypical slugger, Alonso has been the second most consistent power hitter in the game since his 2019 debut. In that time, only Aaron Judge’s 225 home runs top Alonso’s 220 for the MLB lead. The Polar Bear simply mashes. He’s never hit fewer than 37 homers in a full 162-game season. He’s as durable as they come, never missing more than 10 games in a season since debuting, and the only two players with more plate appearances than Alonso since 2019 are Marcus Semien and Freddie Freeman. Teams know Alonso is likelier than most to be out there every day, and he’s assuredly going to hit for more power than nearly any of his peers. On the other hand, Alonso will turn 30 in the offseason. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal. His defense at first base is not considered to be strong. Alonso walks at an above-average but not-elite clip. Paired with his low batting averages, that typically limits his on-base percentage to the .330 to .340 range. None of those are glaring flaws on their own, but bundled together they could make for a concerning profile among today’s front offices. A 30-year-old slugger without defensive value who sports pedestrian OBP marks and is tied to draft pick compensation — that’s not a recipe for a mega-contract. Modern teams have been increasingly wary of paying a first-base-only profile late into their 30s — or even signing such players to truly long-term deals as well. Freeman (six years, $162MM) and Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $130MM) both inked long-term deals beginning with their age-32 seasons. Alonso is younger but also not considered as complete a hitter as those two were when they signed. It’s easy to imagine Alonso and Scott Boras wanting to top Freeman, but Alonso could have a hard time climbing to such heights. |
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Post by nyf on Sept 6, 2024 18:14:15 GMT
he's certainly making a case for his value, but short of him having a Cespedes like September, I still don't think he touches the 6 year 158M the mets offered him. I for one hope he's still a Met next year, but at a more reasonable number.
If not, we move Vientos over, and give Baty/Mauricio a crack at the 3B job. Having C, 1B, 3B and a SP slot or two occupied by pre-arb guys could pave he way for 40M a year for Soto... does having 22-25M committed to Pete at 1B diminish the chances?
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